
Knowing if a song will become a hit could be the dream of any artist or person linked to the music industry. Although there are people who have an incredible vision to detect the potential of a track, the reality is the magic formula for success does not exist. Course, these people had several mistakes throughout their careers before releasing the song that would become their first hit.
The point is the criterion with which the scope of a song is predicted use to be something subjective. It is based on tastes, experiences, and especially on the feeling it generates or what it transmits to the person who listens to it.
As you may have already noticed, we are not talking about something technical; but something purely sensorial. Some people think that technical quality is the most important thing. But when a song is released, it’s supposed to meet the minimum standards required by the industry. While it’s delightful to have a Grammy Award-winning track, in my opinion, as long as those minimum standards are met, the technical matter doesn’t make a difference between a regular song and a hit (for examples there are too many).
So, is there a way to know if a song will be successful? In absolute terms, no. But we can know what elements it must have for it to be. As I said before, the difficulty is they are subjective elements. In my opinion, for a song to become a hit, it must strictly comply with one of these two premises:
1- Must excite
2- Must amuse
If both comply, we could have a super hit (a Bohemian Rhapsody or Billy Jean, for example). Otherwise, the game is over. It doesn’t matter if a song was produced by Quincy Jones, was recorded in Abbey Road Studios or, Elvis and Michael Jackson came down from heaven to sing it as a duet. If a song doesn’t excite or amuse you, it’s fate to be a failure.
I understand that what I’m saying here can be very controversial. So even though I could make an endless list of songs, I’m going to leave the exercise to you. Think of any successful song and, you will find that it meets one of these two parameters. And if it was a worldwide hit, probably with both of them. I know, it’s easy to do a retrospective analysis after a song peaked. But it is a way of seeing that there is a common element in the songs that makes this possible.
This doesn’t mean that you necessarily have to like any successful song. It’s important to consider that here we’re speaking in massive terms. Each artist has a style with its attributes; that many people may like, but not necessarily everyone. It’s like chocolate. Many people like it, but some don’t.
You’re probably wondering why there are wonderful, exciting, or fun songs and, nothing happens with them. That’s because other important variables influence success, such as broadcasting, marketing, the artist’s background, among many others.
Managing these elements well, the possibility of success is greater, but they are not essential. I know of new artists who reached the top of the billboards despite a poor or no marketing campaign. But they were excellent songs that meet the premises. So, we go back to the beginning: If a song doesn’t excite or amuse, success is impossible.
And now that you know what a song must have to be successful, may I know: Does your favorite song excite you, amuse you, or both?

Cristóbal “Catire” Mancheño
Music, Songwriter
& Recording Engineer